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As of 8:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025…
Near the Southeastern U.S.:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula eastward to the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean are associated with a weak surface trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend while the system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
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As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025…
Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
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As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025…
Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S., over
Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
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Original post
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Florida-
June 29, 2025: At 7:54 a.m., the National Hurricane Center has the area in a low chance (20%) for tropical cyclone development late in the week into next weekend. At the present time the main impact looks to be heavy rainfall if a system does develop.
Directly from NHC: “As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025…
Southeastern U.S. Coastline:
Towards the end of this week into next weekend, an area of low pressure could develop from a remnant frontal boundary near or along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and or Gulf coasts. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as it drifts slowly just off the U.S. coastline.
* Formation chance through 48 hours….low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.”
Stay tuned for later updates.
